Heartstop kill chance
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- Dekar
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Heartstop kill chance
4th revision >_<
As I have to learn stochastic, I'm taking another try to find out Heartstops kill chance.
For the DarkNemesis under you who dont know what Heartstop is, it is a talent that kills a unit when Exhaustion stuns it, if it is already stunned.
Exhaustion on level 6 has a 16% chance per second to stun a unit for 3 seconds and lasts 85 seconds.
Units:
Every second there is a 16% chance to cause a stun. Then there is a 0.84³= 59.3% chance in the next 3 seconds not to die or 40.7% chance to die.
So we have a 0.16*0.407= 6.5% chance to die per second.
For 83 seconds we have 0.935^83 = ~0.377% to survive one cast of Exhaustion.
But units tend to not live that long anyway, so we take a look at smaller times:
5 seconds: 28.5% kill chance
10 seconds: 49% kill chance
15 seconds: 63.5% kill chance
Heroes:
8% to get stunned, 22% to get another stun while stunned (=stunlocked).
Of course that calculation may be completly wrong, so feel free to correct me.
Also not sure if 2 or 3 stuns can happen during another stun which trigger Heartstop.
As I have to learn stochastic, I'm taking another try to find out Heartstops kill chance.
For the DarkNemesis under you who dont know what Heartstop is, it is a talent that kills a unit when Exhaustion stuns it, if it is already stunned.
Exhaustion on level 6 has a 16% chance per second to stun a unit for 3 seconds and lasts 85 seconds.
Units:
Every second there is a 16% chance to cause a stun. Then there is a 0.84³= 59.3% chance in the next 3 seconds not to die or 40.7% chance to die.
So we have a 0.16*0.407= 6.5% chance to die per second.
For 83 seconds we have 0.935^83 = ~0.377% to survive one cast of Exhaustion.
But units tend to not live that long anyway, so we take a look at smaller times:
5 seconds: 28.5% kill chance
10 seconds: 49% kill chance
15 seconds: 63.5% kill chance
Heroes:
8% to get stunned, 22% to get another stun while stunned (=stunlocked).
Of course that calculation may be completly wrong, so feel free to correct me.
Also not sure if 2 or 3 stuns can happen during another stun which trigger Heartstop.
Last edited by Dekar on April 30th, 2009, 11:13 am, edited 9 times in total.
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Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
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Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer
- Reaper
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Re: Heartstop kill chance
for one thing pick commas or periods, don't mix
but uh, I think stuns can be reapplied when a unit is already stunned, although it depends on the way it was coded.
anyway the rest of it looks good I think
but uh, I think stuns can be reapplied when a unit is already stunned, although it depends on the way it was coded.
anyway the rest of it looks good I think
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Re: Heartstop kill chance
Alright, my statistical skills're a little rusty, but I'll do my best
EDIT: Nevermind, actually went back and familiarized myself with what the spell did. Numbers, so far as I can tell, work.Every second there is a 14% to cause a stun. Then there is a 0,86³= 63,6% chance in the next 3 seconds not to die or 36.4% to die.
Last edited by CryptLord1234 on April 29th, 2009, 2:32 pm, edited 3 times in total.
"L4D2 promises to set a new benchmark for co-op games. . ." Like L4D promised to hand us new maps, survivors, and zombies? We've seen how that works.
Re: Heartstop kill chance
Also t1 and t3. >_>
There are essentially three rolls for a twice in a row stun. In which case, would be (.14^2) then there's three rolls for that, now we calc for of those three rolls, chances of -not- getting that chance, to get chance of not of the chance you would inverse it via 1-(.14^2). To calculate the chance of -not- within three rolls, it's [1-(.14^2)]^3. To go back to chance of twice within three rolls inverse back to chance of, 1-{[1-(.14^2)]^3}
.14^2 = a
1 - a = b
b^3 = c
1 - c = d
d = chance
There are essentially three rolls for a twice in a row stun. In which case, would be (.14^2) then there's three rolls for that, now we calc for of those three rolls, chances of -not- getting that chance, to get chance of not of the chance you would inverse it via 1-(.14^2). To calculate the chance of -not- within three rolls, it's [1-(.14^2)]^3. To go back to chance of twice within three rolls inverse back to chance of, 1-{[1-(.14^2)]^3}
.14^2 = a
1 - a = b
b^3 = c
1 - c = d
d = chance
Last edited by Perhaps on April 29th, 2009, 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Heartstop kill chance
Yeah, yeah, as I said, my stats're a little rusty. Been a couple years since I took the course. Although I was pretty sure it was (1-p)^n, so (1-.14)^2, not 1 - (.14)^2.
EDIT: Also, plug'n'chugging with what Perhaps said comes out with a chance to die of 5.76%. Assuming those numbers are correct.
EDIT: Also, plug'n'chugging with what Perhaps said comes out with a chance to die of 5.76%. Assuming those numbers are correct.
"L4D2 promises to set a new benchmark for co-op games. . ." Like L4D promised to hand us new maps, survivors, and zombies? We've seen how that works.
- Dekar
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Re: Heartstop kill chance
Cleaned up the first post a bit.
Periods - commas mixup was propably due to constant rewriting of the first post until I found the right way to tackle this problem.
Periods - commas mixup was propably due to constant rewriting of the first post until I found the right way to tackle this problem.
<EotA@Azeroth> YAKS GO MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
Dekar: WAVES
Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer
Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
Dekar: WAVES
Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer
Re: Heartstop kill chance
You do consecutive chance of something to the power of how many rolls/tries. When you look at "at least once," you need to calculate with "not" because the "not" chance would have to be consecutive for the "at least once" to never happen, or otherwise, the chances of it not happening decrease per roll, which means the chances of it happening increase.
In this case the 14% chance has to happen twice, each consecutive time that's called for the lesser the chances of it happening so in this case .14^2 will be a less of a chance giving your chance for instant kill to happen. Assuming it will do an instance for all 3 second, "1, 2, 3", you would have, 1|2, 1|3, 2|3, 3 possibilities. Of course the more possibilities of instant kill, the greater the chance that the instant kill will happen. .14^2 is chance for instant kill, incorporating the consecutive occurrence of not happening for that chance in 3 rolls would be [1-(.14^2)]^3.
I forget the quick way to calculate a total amount of possibilities without counting. -_-
In this case the 14% chance has to happen twice, each consecutive time that's called for the lesser the chances of it happening so in this case .14^2 will be a less of a chance giving your chance for instant kill to happen. Assuming it will do an instance for all 3 second, "1, 2, 3", you would have, 1|2, 1|3, 2|3, 3 possibilities. Of course the more possibilities of instant kill, the greater the chance that the instant kill will happen. .14^2 is chance for instant kill, incorporating the consecutive occurrence of not happening for that chance in 3 rolls would be [1-(.14^2)]^3.
I forget the quick way to calculate a total amount of possibilities without counting. -_-
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Re: Heartstop kill chance
Gotcha, starting to come back to me now.
"L4D2 promises to set a new benchmark for co-op games. . ." Like L4D promised to hand us new maps, survivors, and zombies? We've seen how that works.
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Re: Heartstop kill chance
Updated with the far more interesting hero kill chance:
7% to get stunned, 20% to die when stunned, 1.4% chance to die per second. 44.1% to survive one minute of exhaustion.
7% to get stunned, 20% to die when stunned, 1.4% chance to die per second. 44.1% to survive one minute of exhaustion.
<EotA@Azeroth> YAKS GO MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
Dekar: WAVES
Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer
Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
Dekar: WAVES
Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer
Re: Heartstop kill chance
The kill chance only applies to units.
And i'm pretty damn sure I tested it and found it to be working...
DarnYak
And i'm pretty damn sure I tested it and found it to be working...
DarnYak
- Dekar
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Re: Heartstop kill chance
I just tested it again and didnt score a single kill between lvl 19 and 26 with it (Exhaustion level 4 and 5). I even saw a sorc getting multiple stuns in rapid succession without any effect.
I hoped but didn't believe the instantkill works with heroes.
Could you tell us if 2 or 3 stuns can trigger Heartstop during another stun = if the stun duration is rather 2.99 or 3.01 seconds.
The actual spell values for level 6 are 8% chance and 85 seconds duration.
Units:
5 seconds: 28.5% kill chance
10 seconds: 49% kill chance
15 seconds: 63.5% kill chance
I hoped but didn't believe the instantkill works with heroes.
Could you tell us if 2 or 3 stuns can trigger Heartstop during another stun = if the stun duration is rather 2.99 or 3.01 seconds.
The actual spell values for level 6 are 8% chance and 85 seconds duration.
Units:
5 seconds: 28.5% kill chance
10 seconds: 49% kill chance
15 seconds: 63.5% kill chance
<EotA@Azeroth> YAKS GO MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
Dekar: WAVES
Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer
Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
Dekar: WAVES
Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer
Re: Heartstop kill chance
Probably not.Dekar wrote:Could you tell us if 2 or 3 stuns can trigger Heartstop during another stun = if the stun duration is rather 2.99 or 3.01 seconds.
And just incase it isn't clear, the instant death triggers while the unit is stunned from anything, not just exhaustion.
DarnYak
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Re: Heartstop kill chance
Hmm, I only thought about stunned by something else and then stunned by Exhaustion again, not the other way around.
Cluster rockets and magic gen come to mind, as there is no hero with a good unit stun skill.
And if Heartstop works it may be good enough on its own to make people take Exhaustion instead of his chain plague.
Cluster rockets and magic gen come to mind, as there is no hero with a good unit stun skill.
And if Heartstop works it may be good enough on its own to make people take Exhaustion instead of his chain plague.
<EotA@Azeroth> YAKS GO MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
Dekar: WAVES
Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer
Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
Dekar: WAVES
Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer
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Ignastio
Re: Heartstop kill chance
exhaustion with gravel's tremor might make for a deadly combo.
- Dekar
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Re: Heartstop kill chance
Like anyone is using that!
... ok, fine, I dont like to play Ember so I forgot about that.
Tremor and Exhaustion will be the ultimate AoE slow/stun combo in -AP, someone should test it.
... ok, fine, I dont like to play Ember so I forgot about that.
Tremor and Exhaustion will be the ultimate AoE slow/stun combo in -AP, someone should test it.
<EotA@Azeroth> YAKS GO MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
Dekar: WAVES
Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer
Dekar: the ultimate ocean themed hero should buff and depend on spawn waves!
DarnYak: why is that
Dekar: WAVES
Dekar:
DarnYak: i was afraid that was the answer